Buckle in for a hot dry summer
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are underway.
Last week, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) declared that El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are underway.
Warmer and drier conditions will be more likely over spring and summer for parts of Australia, under the influence of these two climate drivers.
Bureau of Meteorology Climate Manager Dr Karl Braganza said both El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole tend to draw rain away from Australia.
"Over spring, their combined impact can increase the chance of below average rainfall over much of the continent and higher temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the country," Dr Braganza said.
“The Bureau’s three-month forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature has been indicating warm and dry conditions for some time.
“Based on history, it is now also more likely that warm and dry conditions will persist over eastern Australia until autumn.”
El Niño events increase the risk of extreme temperature shifts, like heatwaves and hotter days.?
Increased fire danger in south-eastern Australia is associated with El Niño conditions. A positive IOD contributes to greater fire risk over southeast Australia in spring, while El Niño contributes to
elevated fire risk over both spring and summer.
According to BOM records, Phillip Island experienced a warmer drier winter this year.
This June the average temperature at the Rhyll weather station was 14.3C (compared to the overall average of 14C); in July it was 14.2C (average 13.4C) and August it was 15.1C (average 14.3C).
While June was very wet, both July and August rainfall levels were well below average.
The CFA has issued numerous warnings for people to be aware of the potential bushfire threats in the coming summer, including making sure your property is bushfire ready, and having a bushfire survival plan in place.
